An inconvenient truth from the plains of Isan

       Some people don't believe global warming is real and many are not so sure it is happening now. To these people Vichein Kerdsuk, a researcher at the Research and Development Institute (RDI) of Khon Kaen University, would like to say that climate change is definitely already taking a toll on the Thung Kula Ronghai (the plain of crying nomads), the heartland of the world famous Thai hom mali jasmine rice.
       CHANGING TIMES: An old farmer surveys his rice farm in the northeast. Climate experts have warned of drastic declines in crop yields due to climate change.
       A paper presented to the RDI symposium 2009 by academics and his team provides evidence that the northeastern plain is already experiencing the impacts of global warming, including a higher mean temperature, change in the rain pattern and more frequent natural disasters.
       Farmers in the plain, which is the largest area of jasmine rice cultivation in the country, have suffered on average a 45% reduction in production of hom mali rice in recent years, according to the research.
       The study also showed extreme weather swings - drought and floods are an increasing threat to farmers in the plain.
       "Climate change is shaking up the 'Kitchen of the World'," Mr Vichein said, referring to the slogan coined by Dhanin Chearavanont, chairman of the Charoen Pokphand Group, and taken up by the Thaksin Shinawatra government to promote Thailand's position as a major global agricultural player.
       Thai jasmine rice has long been popular around the world because of its taste and its good price, but the market has become highly competitive, with many countries now producing the rice variety. The "Kitchen of the World" campaign has sought to differentiate Thai hom mali grains from the competition and add value to the product.
       While the campaign has not been a priority of the present government, there is no question of hom mali's continuing importance to the country's export portfolio. According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, in the first five months of 2009 Thailand shipped 1.17 million tonnes of Thai hom mali rice, worth 28.5 billion baht.
       PRIDE OF THAILAND: A farmer with hom mali shoots in his hand.
       Thung Kula Ronghai covers 2.1 million rai (3,360 square kilometres), an area five times the size of Singapore, spread throughout the five northeastern provinces of Roi Et, Maha Sarakham, Surin, Si Sa Ket and Yasothon.
       Northeastern farmers have an intimate relationship with the cycles of nature and have always had to deal with climate variations, but the changes in recent years - hotter weather and more frequent natural disasters - have been harder to adapt to.
       Buasi Srikhampha, 51, who has two rai of paddy field in Rasi Salai district of Si Sa Ket province, said her once-idyllic existence had turned into a kind of bad dream. "Everything has changed so quickly and life has become very hard," she said. "My crops are losing out to both drought and flood.
       "We are used to annual drought and know how to coexist with it, but we are not used to extreme weather coming on so swiftly and lasting so long," said the farmer.
       To get out from under the burden of the family's accumulated debts, her husband and her two teenage daughters have migrated to Bangkok to work, leaving her alone to take care of the farm.
       GREEN FEAST: Buasi Srikhampha gathers grass to feed her two cows.
       In this uncertain climate some farmers are reluctant to even sow their crops. Mrs Buasi said several of her neighbours who had been hurt by the unusually severe floods of last year are leaving their fields fallow for now, adopting a wait and see attitude.
       "The weather fluctuations are scaring them," said Mrs Buasi.
       SEASONS OFF KEEL
       The air in the plain feels somehow more tense than before, as if nature can no longer be trusted. Dong Noonto, standing under a tree as he looked over his field, lamented that the seasons have gone haywire.
       "When I was a boy, the rains would come and last a certain period of time," said the farmer, who has a nine-rai farm in Si Sa Ket province. "Now it is unpredictable."
       The 59-year-old, who had never heard of global warming, said that many are turning to the supernatural for an explanation. A strong belief in mysterious supernatural powers is still found in the villages of the plains, a mixture of Phi (ancestral ghosts), Buddha and Brahman, as well as many local gods who reside in the ancient plain. Many blame unexplained occurrences such as severe droughts, fierce thunderstorms and unrelenting rains as the work of supernatural powers.
       FARMER’S CONCERN: Dong Noonto watches over his young hom mali rice plants, above. He is worried his fields might be swallowed by flash floods.
       But some devout Buddhists like Mr Dong see it otherwise.
       "Some people who have lived in the plain for a long time believe this calamity is the work of Chao Phor [an ancestral ghost], because he is angry," said Mr Dong. He believes, however, that he and the other farmers in the plain are victims of their own karma.
       "When you talk about global warming to farmers there aren't many who really understand what you are talking about," said Mr Vichein. Authorities should educate local communities about climate change and its impacts, he said, adding that such information is of vital importance to farmers in certain parts of the country which are prone to extreme weather conditions.
       Mr Vichien hastened to add that he was not saying that the farmers are ignorant. During his study he witnessed many locals adjusting their farming schedules and methods in light of the changing conditions.
       In some instances farmers have actually benefitted from the change. For example, some whose fields are on higher ground have taken advantage of increasing volumes of rainfall to initiate a second yearly crop, as is done by farmers in the Central Plain.
       GROWING SEASON: Verdant rice fields under cultivation.
       But Mr Vichein said that overall global warming is driving wild climate swings that are punishing the northeastern provinces with increasing frequency.
       One clear consequence is the shifting of seasonal patterns. He said harvesting was typically being done much earlier - from late November to early October - due to a change in the rain pattern. In order to come up with suitable and timely measures to deal with and mitigate the effects of climate change, Mr Vichein is embarking on a wider and more in-depth research project to determine the impact of global warming in the Chi and Moon river basins. The research will cover up to 19 provinces in the Northeast.
       Of his work in the Thung Kula Ronghai, he said: "Hopefully, the changes observed here can provide an early warning system for the rest of the country." He hopes his work will help to develop a sound scientific model for farming in a more threatening environment.
       While a definitive answer will take years of careful study, the climatologist said the country should expect more extreme weather in the years ahead as rising ocean temperatures and diminishing rainforests cause shifts in global climate patterns.